2016 Opponent Spring Preview: Wake Forest
GoBlackKnights.com continues our early look at the Army Black Knights’ opponents in the 2016 season, with a preview of the 8th opponent on the schedule the Demon Deacons of Wake Forest
When: Saturday, October 29th at BB&T Stadium in Winston-Salem (NC)
Series Record: Wake Forest holds an 11-4 advantage in the series dating back to 1945. Army won the first three games of the series, but Wake Forest has won the last 9 encounters. Army’s last win came in 1989 when they downed WFU 14-10. The last two games have been decided by a field goal.
Last Meeting: September 19, 2015 - two second year head coaches faced off against one another in Michie Stadium. Neither team scored in the first quarter, but Ahmad Bradshaw got Army on the scoreboard at the 10 minute mark in the 2d quarter to put Army up 7-0 at the half. Freshman quarterback Kendall Hinton tied it up on a 15 yard run with 5 minutes to go in the third quarter and then put WFU in the lead with a 7 yard run early in the 4th quarter. Army came back to tie the score with 7:25 left in the game and it looked as though the two defenses would force the game into overtime, but Mike Weaver converted on a 47 yard field goal as time ran out to give the Demon Deacons a 17-14 win.
The last meeting in Winston-Salem in 2014 was another close encounter, and one that more than a few Army fans thought that Monken should have won. The Deacons scored first, but then Army outscored WFU three TDs to one to give Army a 21-14 lead at the half. Army had a golden opportunity to open up a two-touchdown lead with a drive deep into Wake Forest territory late in the third quarter, but sophomore Joe Walker went in to replace Terry Baggett and fumbled a pitch from Angel Santiago. It was Walker’s second career rushing attempt, and some fans wondered why Walker was in the game at that crucial point with 5 experienced senior slotbacks available. The Deacons recovered and took advantage of the turnover to march down the field for a first-and-goal situation. Army defense held, but the Deacons got a field goal to close the gap to 21-17 at the start of the 4th quarter; and John Wolford led the Deacons on a final scoring drive to give them a 24-21 win.
Wake Forest 2015 Record
1-7 in the ACC, 3-9 overall
Season Summary: Wake Forest started the season with a 41-3 win over FCS opponent Elon, but then traveled to Syracuse for their first conference game of the season and came away with a 30-17 loss. Their third game was the 17-14 win at Army that got them back on a winning track with a 2-1 record. Their next game was at home against Indiana, and they came out on the short end of that contest 31-24.
They returned to conference play with a 24-16 loss to perennial ACC powerhouse Florida State at home. The following week two of the best defensive teams in the ACC squared off against each other and Wake Forest beat Boston College 3-0 to even the Deacons season record at 3-3. The remainder of the season’s games all ended up in the loss column as they lost big to North Carolina 50-14, NC State 35-17, Notre Dame 28-7 and #1 Clemson 33-13. They finished out the season with a narrow 27-21 loss to Duke.
For the second year in a row, Wake Forest fielded a top 40 defense but couldn’t get much going with their offense. The Deacons scored an average of 17.4 points per game, ranking 119th in the FBS in Scoring Offense. They rushed for an average of 105 yards per game which ranked 122d in the FBS, but was still a marked improvement over their 39 yards per game average in 2014. Their passing game was significantly better than their running game with an average of 228 yards, ranking them 60th in the FBS.
If the adage about defense winning games was always true, Wake Forest would have had a better record than 3-9 last season. They held their opponents to 24.6 points per game for 43d in the FBS; 161 yards rushing for 52d in the FBS; and 203 yards passing for 32d in the FBS.
Wake Forest Recruiting 2012-2016
Wake Forest recruits pretty much as one would expect of a lower half team in a Power 5 conference. They don’t attract the 4 and 5 star recruits like super powers Ohio State or Alabama, but they do considerably better than most teams from the Group of 5 FBS conferences in attracting three-stars. Only 6 FBS teams outside the Power 5 conferences ranked higher than Wake Forest in the Rivals 2016 team ratings, and Wake’s 2.73 average recruit rating was higher than 5 of those 6. As a private school, Wake Forest has no incentive to focus their recruiting to North Carolina, and they don’t; but most of their recruits come from the nearby mid to south Atlantic seaboard states as well as neighboring Tennessee.
2012: Rivals ranked WFU 14th in the ACC and 69th in the FBS with no 4 or 5 star recruits and 16 three-star recruits. Only 4 of the 16 are still on the roster, but they are all on the two deep depth chart with 3 of them among the top players in career starts.
2013: Rivals ranked WFU 10th in the ACC and 58th in the FBS, with no 4 or 5 stars, but another class of 16 three-star recruits. Nine of the 16 three-stars are still on the roster with 4 of them listed as starters on the depth chart.
2014: Rivals ranked WFU 14th in the ACC and 60th in the FBS in Dave Clausens first year as head coach of the Demon Deacons. Clauson still didn’t attract any 4 or 5 star recruits and only landed 11 three-stars, but 8 of them ended up on the two-deep depth chart last year, including John Wolford who was the starting QB for the second year in a row along with two other starters who come from that recruitng class.
2015: Rivals ranked WFU 11th in the ACC and 51st in the FBS. Clauson got his first 4-star recruit, but he didn’t last long and is not on this year’s roster. He appears to have done better with his 12 three-star recruits, with 11 of the 12 still on the roster. Five of the 11 were redshirted last year, but 3 broke into the staring lineup and another 3 earned backup roles, including QB Kendall Hinton, who scored 2 TDs against Army last year and is challenging Wolford for the starting QB job this season.
2016: Rivals ranked WFU 12th in ACC and 63d in the FBS with no 4 or 5 star recruits and 16 three-stars, all of whom are listed as freshmen on the current roster.
STARTERS RETURNING
Wake Forest’s 2015 senior class was the smallest senior class in FBS, and had the fewest seniors remaining since1944 when the U.S. was involved in World War II; so they didn’t lose a lot starters to graduation. The Deacons are still a very young team, but like Army in recent years, a lot of their younger players return with starting experience.
Offense - 9 of 11 starters returning:
Some of the 9 returning starters did not start a majority of the games last season, but Wake only lost two of their regular offensive starters to graduation. Leading the returning starters is junior QB John Wolford, who started all 12 games as a true freshman. Wolford is no threat running, but his challenger, sophomore Kendall Hinton, is a true dual-threat quarterback. Wake lost one of their top receivers but they have plenty of experienced talent returning, led by RS-Jr TE Cam Serigne, along with 3 experienced sophomore WRs in Cortez Lewis, Tabari Hines, and Alex Bachman. Wake Forests rushing attack was nearly non-existent the past two years, but they return their 3 top running backs in Tyler Bell, Isaiah Robinson and Matt Colburn. Needless to say, none of the 3 has job security.
The Deacons lost their most experienced offensive lineman in Dylan Intemann, but the other 4 starters are back, although they are still relatively young group. The veterans of the group are RS-Sr LG Tyler Hayworth (19 starts) and senior center Josh Harris (22 starts. The other two returning starters are redshirt sophomores Justin Herron (10 starts) and Ryan Anderson (2 starts).
Defense: 7 of 11 starters returning
Wake lost its top defender LB Brandon Chubb (34 starts), Rover Hunter Williams (30 starts) and safety Zach Dancell (10 starts) to graduation, but they have a solid nucleus returning from a very good defensive unit. RS-Sr safety Ryan Janvion (33 starts) was noticeably missing from spring practice, and Dave Clausen has not disclosed the nature of his injury or whether he is expected to return. RS-Sr DT Josh Banks (22 starts) was also on the injured list for the spring game; leaving Zeek Rodney (10 starts) as the veteran on the defensive line with assistance from RS-Jr Duke Ejiofor who had 4 starts last year and RS-So Chris Stewart with 3 starts. Wendall Dunn (22 starts) is back at the DROP, a DE/LB hybrid, and Marquel Lee (22 starts) returns at MLB. Brad Watson (10 starts) returns at one CB spot and Dionte Austin (2 starts) at the other CB.
2016 SEASON OUTLOOK
This is Dave Clausen’s third year at the helm of the Demon Deacons, and if he can keep his young team healthy, they are in a position to make a move up the standings in the ACC this season. Wake Forest had 8 starters who missed the spring game due to injuries, but if they get those people back in the fall, they should field a significantly improved team. As noted above, they had very few losses from last year’s team due to graduation, and their defense was one of the best in the ACC. The offensive line has had problems protecting John Wolford in the past and opening holes for their running game, but they are considerably more experienced this season, and when given time, Wolford can find his targets. Clausen has the luxury of a backup quarterback who is a true dual threat, finishing as the second leading rusher on the team with 7 rushing TDs last season.
In our earlier review of Duke, we noted that they took some heavy losses to graduation, while Wake Forest had its smallest graduating class since 1944. Duke beat Wake Forest by a mere 6 points last year; so it’s not hard to imagine Wake Forest overtaking Duke in their second game on the schedule this year. Their opening game against Tulane is likely to produce a W as should their third game against Delaware; so they could go into the Indiana game 3-0 with a decent chance of winning in Bloomington. It would be a real stretch of the imagination to suggest that they have much chance of overtaking Clemson, Florida State or Louisville, three perennial football powers in the ACC Atlantic Conference, but its not much of a stretch to see them rising to 4th in their division with potential wins over Virginia and Syracuse who have new head coaches this season as well as Boston College a team they beat 3-0 last year. In-state rival NC State is likely to present a tougher challenge, but they are not beyond the Deacon’s reach either.
EARLY VIEW OF THE GAME
The starting point of all annual predictions is last year’s record, and Wake Forest’s narrow margin of victory should normally give Army fans cause to hope for an upset. After all, we’re quite confident that this year’s version of the Black Knights will be better than last year’s, but, unfortunately, the same can be said of the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest has been a weak ACC team that is getting better, and playing the game in Winston-Salem should give them an advantage. If the Deacons can find an offense to match their defense, they will be a tough team to beat in 2016.
Two CFB studies of the impact of returning starters found that returning starters on defense have more of an effect on success than returning starters on offense. Teams need 10 or 11 starters returning on offense to make a significant impact in the win column, while returning less than 7 is likely to result in more losses. The magic number on defense is 8 returning starters, with an average increase of 3 wins for teams that return all 11 starters and a decrease in wins for those teams that return 7 or fewer starters on defense. Both Army and Wake Forest have the same number of returning starters, but the statisticians would give Army a slight advantage with more of their returning starters being on defense.
Army has played well in Winston-Salem the past two times they’ve played there, and while the Deacons have a 9 game winning streak against the Black Knights, the last two were anyone’s game until the final gun. At this point in time, Wake looks to be the favorite, but we’ll know more as we see the season unfold.
NOTABLES: Just in case you missed any of our GBK Army Football Spring Practice coverage, then CLICK HERE for the archives of non-premium & premium daily articles and analysis.
**To chat with other Army fans about what is unfolding with Army spring football, join in on the thread 'GBK: Army Spring Football Central'**
Not a subscriber to GBK? There’s no better time than now, as we continue our 2016 Spring coverage of Army football
